=== Variante A (oraculo) === %apur t1-2026 t2-2022 2 -0.0903 -0.0617 3 +0.0960 -0.3934 5 +0.1017 -0.0115 8 +0.0170 +0.2095 10 +0.0118 +0.1907 15 +0.0056 +0.3033 20 -0.0039 +0.2464 30 -0.0252 +0.2578 40 -0.0086 +0.2269 50 +0.0322 +0.1315 70 +0.0193 +0.0794 90 +0.0145 +0.0288 100 -0.0000 -0.0000 2-5% t1-2026: |e|=0.096 vies=+0.036 | t2-2022: |e|=0.156 vies=-0.156 8-30% t1-2026: |e|=0.013 vies=+0.001 | t2-2022: |e|=0.242 vies=+0.242 50-90% t1-2026: |e|=0.022 vies=+0.022 | t2-2022: |e|=0.080 vies=+0.080 Decomposicao base 2022 (pt de erro): pct apurados sem-apurar (% munic. apurados) 8: +0.066 +0.144 (34%) 10: +0.077 +0.114 (38%) 15: +0.105 +0.198 (44%) 20: +0.032 +0.214 (49%) 30: +0.052 +0.206 (57%) (base 2026:) 8: -0.036 +0.053 (34%) 10: -0.010 +0.022 (38%) 15: -0.013 +0.019 (44%) 20: -0.027 +0.023 (49%) 30: -0.061 +0.036 (57%) === Variante B (realista) === %apur t1-2026 t2-2022 2 +0.0653 -0.2471 3 +0.2431 -0.5751 5 +0.2430 -0.1834 8 +0.1453 +0.0412 10 +0.1316 +0.0275 15 +0.1004 +0.1456 20 +0.0644 +0.0919 30 +0.0012 +0.1163 40 -0.0158 +0.1003 50 -0.0006 +0.0230 70 -0.0241 +0.0184 90 -0.0077 +0.0106 100 -0.0000 -0.0000 2-5% t1-2026: |e|=0.184 vies=+0.184 | t2-2022: |e|=0.335 vies=-0.335 8-30% t1-2026: |e|=0.089 vies=+0.089 | t2-2022: |e|=0.085 vies=+0.085 50-90% t1-2026: |e|=0.011 vies=-0.011 | t2-2022: |e|=0.017 vies=+0.017